Trying to reconcile recent market advances with not-so-good economic data
The recent advances in the financial markets have left many puzzled, given the not-so-good economic data we have witnessed. U.S. stock markets continue to trend up as optimism returns to Wall Street while Main Street USA continues to struggle. For sure, there is plenty of social unrest around the country, geopolitical tensions with China, Russia, and North Korea are increasing, and some not-so-great economic data released recently – but the major U.S. markets are trading close to all-time highs.
The forward-looking nature of stock prices plays a crucial role in this disconnect. Stock market values are determined by investors’ expectations of future earnings and growth prospects. Therefore, even during economic downturns or periods of slow growth, the market can rally if there is optimism about future economic recovery.
Additionally, the financial markets are influenced by a range of factors beyond just the domestic economy. Monetary policy decisions, stimulus packages, and global economic conditions contribute to market expectations and investor behavior.
Recognizing that the stock market is not a perfect reflection of the real economy in the short term is important. While economic data may indicate a decline in economic output and measure of joblessness, the stock market can still rally based on investor expectations of a quick recovery or government interventions.
The Markets Have Covered a Lot of Ground
If you go back to the fall of 2022, many market pundits were suggesting that maybe fundamental conditions were supportive of a favorable environment for stock markets in 2023. Unemployment was trending down, there seemed to be consensus when the Fed might stop raising rates, corporate earnings were decent, and GDP growth was solid at 2.6% in Q4. As of late July 2023, the DJIA and S&P 500 are within earshot of their all-time highs, and NASDAQ is not too far behind its peak.
Through the end of the second quarter:
- The S&P 500 was up more than 16% YTD and had turned in its best first half since 2019;
- NASDAQ was up an astonishing 31%+ YTD on its way to its best half since 1983; and
- The DJIA had turned in a still-decent 3.9% YTD gain.
In other words, the markets covered quite a bit of ground in a very short period of time.
A key observation in the market rally is the bias towards larger companies, particularly those in the technology sector. These companies, often referred to as “Big Tech,” have experienced significant gains in their stock prices during the recent market rally. This can be attributed to their strong financial positions, innovative business models, and the increasing reliance on technology in various aspects of our lives.
While the market rally indicates optimism about the state of the economy, it is important to recognize that inflation management is a gradual process, and the impact is not uniform across all sectors and companies. The Fed might be near the end of its tightening cycle without causing a major economic recession. If that remains true, the future economy could continue at full speed.
Financial Markets Look Forward, Economic Data Looks Backward
One of the key concepts in understanding the disconnect between the markets and the economy is that the markets look forward, not backward, in relation to economic data. While economic data reflects past performance and provides a snapshot of where the economy has been, the stock market, on the other hand, anticipates future trends and factors in expectations for what lies ahead.
This forward-looking nature of the markets is driven by several key factors. Market participants analyze economic data and incorporate it into their assessments of future market conditions. They take into account factors such as policy decisions, monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, and market expectations. For example, if economic data shows a decline in unemployment rates, investors may anticipate increased consumer spending and economic growth.
Additionally, market participants also consider future events that may impact market conditions. This could include corporate earnings reports, geopolitical developments, or technological advancements. As new information becomes available, market participants adjust their expectations and revise their valuations of stocks and other asset classes.
This ability of the markets to look ahead can sometimes lead to a disconnect between market performance and current economic conditions. While stock prices may be near new highs, and investors may be optimistic about future trends, the real economy may be grappling with challenges and sluggish growth. This disconnect can be seen during periods of economic downturns, where the markets may already be pricing in expectations of a recovery before it is evident in economic data.
Economic data reflects past performance, while the stock market anticipates future trends, leading to a disparity between the two. How forward does the market look? Well, the answer to that depends on who you ask. But generally speaking, the markets look forward at least a couple of quarters, maybe even as much as 18 months.
Does That Mean It’s Over?
While the stock market rally may bring a sense of relief and optimism, it must be viewed in the context of the overall state of the economy. It is important to recognize that the stock market primarily reflects future expectations and investor sentiment, rather than immediate economic conditions. Therefore, the rally does not necessarily indicate an immediate resolution to the economic challenges faced by many.
Well, we might like to think that we will see nothing but sunny skies and smooth sailing going forward, but that’s not going to happen, especially when you consider that the recent market rally was really over a very short period.
That being said, the recent market rally is encouraging. In fact, oftentimes, strong rallies occur in the beginning stages of a new bull market, and maybe we can look back five years from now and recognize that this was the case for our recent rally. Or maybe not.
What Should Investors Do?
The U.S. stock markets can and do move faster than the U.S. economy, but the two are connected longer-term. And while there are reasons to be optimistic, there are plenty of reasons to worry. As such, it’s important for investors to manage their expectations appropriately.
First and foremost, investors should prioritize risk assessment. It is important to analyze the potential risks associated with their investment strategies thoroughly. This can involve evaluating market volatility, economic uncertainties, and geopolitical events. Understanding the risks can help investors make informed decisions and mitigate potential losses.
Diversification is another key step for investors to consider. By spreading their investments across different asset classes, sectors, and geographic regions, investors can reduce their exposure to any single risk. Diversification can provide a cushion during market downturns and help preserve capital. This includes ensuring periodic rebalancing – not short-term trading – to ensure that the original asset allocation that was deemed appropriate is still intact.
Maintaining a long-term perspective is also crucial. Short-term market fluctuations can be influenced by various factors, but investors who focus on their long-term goals and investment strategies are likely to be better positioned to weather market volatility.